Baron Black's attack on Iran would be suicide for Israel

That's why it doesn't happen.

Conrad "Monty" Black's prescription for peace in the Middle East, written on a day he got into the cooking sherry a little earlier than usual, speculates that in the current climate of chaos wrought in the region by the Nations of Virtue, it might be a good idea if Israel, perhaps in concert with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, eliminated the threat of the imaginary Iranian nukes once and for all. (There had to be more than sherry at work here...)

Black, former publisher of the JPost, still hews to the Likud party line, and as the world knows, the Iran nuke has been a bee in Bibi's bonnet for a quarter century now. Yes, those Iranian nuclear engineers have been months away from a nuclear weapon since the early nineties!

So why does the IAF not do something about it?

The IAF/IDF at the upper echelons are populated with serious people who don't take the yapping of ultra-nationalist politicians and armchair warmongers seriously. While Conrad Black can gloat about the IDF's "thrashing" of Hamas from his mansion in Toronto, IDF boss Benny Gantz acknowledges the courage of the Hamas fighters. Gantz understands that the only result of an unnecessary war that took the lives of five dozen IDF troops was to enhance the prestige of Hamas among the Palestinians.

That's what Mr. Black calls a thrashing of Hamas. The only thing thrashed by Operation Over the Edge was Israel's standing in world opinion.

The serious people understand the limits of what the IDF can and cannot do. They can't destroy Hezbollah, they can't destroy Hamas, and they certainly won't destroy Iran. Even in a nuclear first strike, there will be enough assets left over among Iran and her allies that Israel would be obliterated.

For their part, the Iranians understand that any attack on Israel would be suicidal as well.

What we've got here is MAD lite. Might as well get used to it, live with it, and make the best of it. The threat of mutually assured destruction kept the peace between NATO and the Soviet bloc for 50 years; it can do the same for Iran and Israel.

Netanyahu's declaration of victory rings hollow

Prime Minister Netanyahu's declaration of victory on Wednesday is unlikely to have fooled anyone, least of all the Israeli people.

The stated goals of Operation Solid Cliff/Protective Edge were variously to eliminate Hamas' rockets, create quiet in the south, and eliminate the tunnel networks.

Some tunnels have been destroyed. So long as a single shovel remains in Gaza, more can be built.

If there is quiet in the south today it is because Hamas are observing the ceasefire; not because the IDF silenced the rockets. Hamas kept up a steady barrage of rockets and mortars right into the last minutes before the ceasefire came into effect, in spite of relentless pounding by the IDF and IAF for more than seven weeks.

Gloating about Hamas' leadership being decimated is irrelevant even if it were true; there's plenty of eager recruits where those came from, and if history teaches anything, it's that the next generation of resistance leaders are generally younger, smarter, and more ruthless. Hamas' prestige has been enormously enhanced by Netanyahu's war and to claim otherwise is either brazenly dishonest or delusional.

The unstated goal, to destroy Hamas - PA reconciliation, was also a complete failure. The fact that it was PA negotiators speaking for Gaza and Hamas in Cairo shows they have been brought closer, not driven apart.

And the damage to Israel from Netanyahu's war of choice?

Immeasurable.

Hundreds of thousands have protested against Israel in nations not that long ago considered solid allies. Countries friendly until two months ago have recalled their ambassadors. Israel's relationship with its single most important benefactor has hit an all-time low.

Israel has never been more isolated.

Some victory.

We tried to warn Netanyahu, but would he listen?...

Surely our modest think-tank here at Falling Downs weren't the only ones who figured out there was way more than hashish and Mercedes sedans coming through the Gaza tunnels. Oddly enough, that story referenced in the link happened under Morsi's watch.

Which kinda makes you wonder... Morsi was a MB man, Hamas are an MB franchise; did Morsi order a few high-profile busts just to get happy headlines, while allowing unprecedented volumes of anti-tank weapons and Stinger missiles through the tunnels in those sedans?

Looks like Netanyahu and company are determined to find out.