Egypt intercepts US missiles bound for Gaza

It's long been obvious to all who have eyes to see that if those enterprising folks who run the Gaza tunnels can squeeze a full size Mercedes sedan through there, they can certainly accommodate much else besides.

Agence France-Presse is reporting the seizure of a cache of US made surface-to-air and anti-tank missiles in the Sinai just on the Egyptian side of the Gaza border. The weapons are most likely residual fall-out from the the collapse of the security infrastructure in Libya over a year ago.

This story raises a number of questions. According to AFP the discovery was the result of a "tip," which would immediately raise the question of who provided the tip and why.

It should also raise the question of how much US and NATO ordinance has already found its way into Gaza. It was evident during the recent Operation Pillar of Cloud  that IAF helicopters were being held back from the skies over Gaza. Was this a silent acknowledgement that the IAF Apaches are sitting ducks for the Stinger missiles that have found their way into the territory?

The presence of significant stock-piles of advanced weaponry in the coastal territory would also explain Netanyahu's haste to wind down hostilities, and the cockiness of the Hamas administration afterwards.

Could it be that the presence or presumed presence of those American missiles allowed Hamas to bluff the IDF into a stand-down?

Netanyahu's ground war bluff

At last report 75,000 reservists have been called to active IDF duty in anticipation of a major Gaza invasion.

Netanyahu is bluffing.

He is betting that after another week or two of a one-sided affair in which the IAF can smash Gaza with impunity, Hamas will petition for a cease-fire and the ground invasion won't be necessary.

It is one thing to run thousands of bombing sorties over an opponent with no air force and no air defenses. It will be quite another to fight street to street in Gaza City with ground troops. It's what the militants dream of.

Any meaningful incursion into Gaza will mean Israeli casualties, and plenty of them. Yes, the traditional kill ratio of 100:1 will no doubt be maintained, but even a few dozen IDF casualties will give Israeli voters pause for thought on January 22.

Everybody in Israel understands the timing of this war. It was a war entirely of Netanyahu's choosing, a mere two months before the election. It was designed to make Netanyahu look like the strongman Israel needs to survive.

If IDF forces are bogged down in Gaza on the eve of the election, if reservists are going home dead, the voters will certainly be having second thoughts.