What would Steve Jobs think of the Apple bond issue?
Apple's $17 billion bond issue seems like an unnecessarily convoluted method of getting some of the cash horde "into the hands of the shareholders."
Although I suppose the fees earned by Goldman Sachs will quiet some of the squeakiest wheels clamoring for that cash.
Why does Tim Cook think this is a good idea? When you're sitting on 150 billions, you don't need to give a shit what the shareholders think.
Or what the self-dealing opportunists at GS think.
Focus on making great product, not keeping those so-called activist investors placated.
Showing posts with label Steve Jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steve Jobs. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Is it still time to short Apple?
Apple shares have lost about a third of their value since I originally made that short call last summer. That's a couple hundred billion of market cap gone like farts in a hurricane.
I'm perfectly aware that there's lots of reasonably well-informed analysts out there who project the company's rate of cash accumulation going forward will continue at the rate of the past few years. If one accepts that line of reasoning it's easy to think that two or three years down the road the cash horde alone will equal the current market cap.
Ergo, at $430 Apple is a buy, even a bargain!
I think not, and my argument against buying Apple is based at least as much in sociology as in economics.
Dominant brands in any tech field don't dominate forever. Think Kodak, Xerox, Sony, Nortel, RIM... that's a list that could go on for a long time. Times change, tastes change, and most importantly, the competition never stops competing.
Here's an insightful review of Steve Job's biography by Evgeny Morozov, published a year ago. I was especially intrigued by Morozov's discussion of corporate culture at Apple and how dependent it was on the personality of one man.
No matter how gifted the professional managers now at the helm are (and the jury is out on that question) it is not possible for them to maintain that corporate culture. It will be self-maintaining due to its own momentum, but that's a time-limited phenomenon.
I think the share price drop over the past six months has more to do with the atrophy of that momentum than with any material developments with the company.
And that's something the management cannot change.
Between the image problems that have emerged due to its relationship with Foxconn, its increasing dependence on litigation instead of innovation to maintain market share, the loss of a charismatic leader, the renaissance of key competitors, especially Samsung, the next three years are not going to look like the past three.
At $430, Apple still has a long way to drop.
I'm perfectly aware that there's lots of reasonably well-informed analysts out there who project the company's rate of cash accumulation going forward will continue at the rate of the past few years. If one accepts that line of reasoning it's easy to think that two or three years down the road the cash horde alone will equal the current market cap.
Ergo, at $430 Apple is a buy, even a bargain!
I think not, and my argument against buying Apple is based at least as much in sociology as in economics.
Dominant brands in any tech field don't dominate forever. Think Kodak, Xerox, Sony, Nortel, RIM... that's a list that could go on for a long time. Times change, tastes change, and most importantly, the competition never stops competing.
Here's an insightful review of Steve Job's biography by Evgeny Morozov, published a year ago. I was especially intrigued by Morozov's discussion of corporate culture at Apple and how dependent it was on the personality of one man.
No matter how gifted the professional managers now at the helm are (and the jury is out on that question) it is not possible for them to maintain that corporate culture. It will be self-maintaining due to its own momentum, but that's a time-limited phenomenon.
I think the share price drop over the past six months has more to do with the atrophy of that momentum than with any material developments with the company.
And that's something the management cannot change.
Between the image problems that have emerged due to its relationship with Foxconn, its increasing dependence on litigation instead of innovation to maintain market share, the loss of a charismatic leader, the renaissance of key competitors, especially Samsung, the next three years are not going to look like the past three.
At $430, Apple still has a long way to drop.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Apple heading for $420; dump now
I don't know what the folks at the Mail Online have been smoking the four months since this blog concluded that Apple stock had no place to go but down, but here's a clue. Note third para in; "there are fears it could fall to $420."
It takes a sharp eye to spot these signals and decipher their meaning. That reference to 420 is a signal from the other side, from the great pot-head-in-chief Commander Jobs, that there is no hope without dope.
As for the lads at the Mail Online, I could hook you up with Dr. Kipling for some of his primo Puslinch Redhair, and you'll be up to speed in no time! Then you won't have to bear the ignomy of lagging months behind the pot-addled bloggers in your analyses.
It takes a sharp eye to spot these signals and decipher their meaning. That reference to 420 is a signal from the other side, from the great pot-head-in-chief Commander Jobs, that there is no hope without dope.
As for the lads at the Mail Online, I could hook you up with Dr. Kipling for some of his primo Puslinch Redhair, and you'll be up to speed in no time! Then you won't have to bear the ignomy of lagging months behind the pot-addled bloggers in your analyses.
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