Netanyahu wanted another war and he got it

Anyone who follows Israeli politics is well acquainted with a recurring theme in the career of The Greatest Leader Since Moses; when his political fortunes are on the down-tick, Netanyahu turns up the dial on violence so he can pose as the strongman who can teach the Palestinians a sharp lesson and bring security to the Holy Land. Works like a charm… or at least it has till now. At this point, there is no reason to assume this time is different. Bibi’s desperation to form a government after the last election resulted in him forming alliances with the most racist and extremist settler factions. The shocking deterioration of Palestinian living conditions since the current coalition took power has been obvious to everyone. Settler extremists have had a green light to terrorize Palestinians across the occupied territories. Hardly a day goes by without Palestinians dying at the hands of settler extremists and/or their IDF protectors. The repeated violations of long-standing protocols around access to Al Aqsa has inflamed Palestinian rage, and is cited by Hamas spokespersons as the rationale for launching the current attack. Supposedly, the Hamas offensive took Israel by complete surprise. I find that hard to believe. Every Palestinian resistance entity since the creation of Israel has been thoroughly riddled with spies and collaborators. Israel has enormous advantages in technical surveillance capabilities. It is far more plausible that Israeli intelligence was fully aware this attack was coming, and chose to let it happen. Why? Within 18 hours of the attack, opposition leaders Lapid and Gantz have already agreed to participate in an “Emergency Government.” Just imagine; full support across the entirety of the political spectrum for Netanyahu! You can bet those massive anti-government protests we’ve been seeing for months are over for the foreseeable future. So what happens next? For the moment, Netanyahu has a mandate to unleash extreme vengeance against the Palestinian resistance. But the “what-ifs” are ominous. What if Hezbollah enters the war? There’s been numerous senior IDF officials over the years warning that Hezbollah has a missile stockpile of hundreds of thousands capable of striking anywhere in Israel. What if Iran enters the war? Iran is but the most vocal state supporter of both Hamas and Hezbollah. There are others, and if push comes to shove, even Arab states that have been working at normalizing relations with Israel will be forced to take sides. And let’s not forget that both Russia and China have been stitching up mutual defense agreements with Iran. What if Israel needs to call on its ultimate enabler, the United States, to make good on its promise to ensure Israel will get everything it needs to prevail? Isn’t that the same promise they’ve been making to Ukraine for over a year and a half? And how’s that going? Netanyahu has upped the ante as never before. We live in interesting times.

Why US will not attack Iran

Short answer; it wouldn't be in Israel's interests.

Forty years of inflammatory political rhetoric aside, the serious people at the top of the IDF understand that any significant action against Iran is going to draw in Hezbollah. Here's Security Minister Gilad Erdan putting Hezbollah's missile count at 150,000 last year.

That's simply too many missiles to take out in a preemptive attack, and it's a number that would completely overwhelm Iron Dome defensive capabilities. Every major population centre in Israel would be vulnerable.

Ergo, an attack on Iran is a no-go.

Israeli police press for corruption charges against... OH MY GOD LOOK AT THOSE HEZBOLLAH ATTACK TUNNELS!!!

The greatest leader since Moses has done it again! Within hours of the revelation that police want Netanyahu charged with corruption, bribery, and fraud in relation to "Case 4000" (the other 3,999 corruption cases being held in abeyance for the moment), the IDF miraculously discovers a network of Hezbollah attack tunnels snaking under the northern border!

What are the odds?!

We know the drill, don't we?

Israel faces multiple existential threats.

Israel needs a seasoned strong-man at the top in these dangerous times. Not some untested youngster. Not some Russian nutter who makes Washington nervous...

No, a seasoned veteran who has triumphed over the foe again and again and again, not to mention he speaks proper American English and doesn't frighten people when he's on Fox and CNN.

Only one man has that CV... the Greatest Leader since Moses!

Why Israel will avoid a direct show-down with Hezbollah

Much has been made of the alleged "increased tensions" in the Middle East, due in no small part to both Israeli and US meddling in Syria. The more paranoid factions of the punditocracy see an Israeli or combined Israel-US assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon as imminent, especially in light of Mr. Netanyahu's dire straits vis-a-vis those various corruption investigations.

It won't happen, and here's why. That number is from two years ago. Unofficial estimates have the Hezbollah arsenal at well over 200,000 rockets today, and we're not talking about the homemade stuff the Gaza rocketeers lob into the Negev on a regular basis. We're talking about the real deal.

If you assume a best case scenario wherein the various Israeli anti-missile defences, Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow program, all function flawlessly, they could be expected to be effective against an initial barrage of a few hundred incoming. They'd be less effective going forward, and they'd essentially be a non-factor after a few thousand, which in the case of all-out war would be a matter of hours.

Then what? Even if the IAF managed to take out half the Hezbollah arsenal in a massive first strike, that'll leave a hundred thousand missiles and Israel with it's missile shield spent. Political rhetoric aside, IDF leadership will never permit this.

What we're looking at is a regional case of MAD lite. There may be proxy battles here and there, but there will not be a head-on confrontation.

How to fight terrorism while sponsoring terrorists

This Mohammad bin Salman dude who is now boss of Saudi Arabia has quite a track record for such a youthful world leader.

He's the architect of the collapse in world oil prices, a strategy that has been an epic fail. It has hurt Saudi Arabia more than any of the intended targets.

He's also the architect of the Yemen war, which is an unmitigated disaster and also an epic fail.

And as of this week, he's also the heir apparent to the leadership of the sclerotic state of Saudi Arabia.

Ya, Saudi Arabia is fucked.

Oddly enough, President Trump wasted no time offering congrats to this incorrigible youngster. He sees an eager vassal keen to do the bidding of Uncle Sam, and that's true to a point.

There are any number of policy initiatives taken by this imbecile that threaten catastrophic blow-back not only to Saudi Arabia but to the Middle East in general.

Sucking up to Israel will never fly in the Arab street. Perhaps it's a valid concept among the princelings in the Kingdom, but it will never find favour among the masses.

The Trump initiated quarantine of Qatar is another goose on its way to being cooked. If you've read this far you already know the hilarious demands that MBS and his Arab acolytes (all US vassal states, by the way) have made of Qatar.

Shut down Al Jazeera. Theoretically this should raise the hackles of freedom of speech advocates worldwide, but thus far the condemnation of this initiative has been muted.

Break commercial ties with Iran. After all, as Trump and the entire upper echelon of US power-brokers never tire of reminding us, Iran is the mother ship of terror networks world-wide.

Stop supporting terrorism. There's no question that Qatar has supported terrorism... in Syria. A far bigger sponsor of terrorism has been the very state that MBS is now the putative and temporary head of. The Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas and Hezbollah are only "terror" entities in countries where Israeli lobbying has succeeded in rendering them as such.

How many 9/11 terrorists hailed from Qatar?

How many from Saudi Arabia?

Kick Turkey out of their base in Qatar. This could get interesting. The US has a far larger base in Qatar. The US and Turkey are NATO allies. Turkey is essentially a Muslim Brotherhood hood. That won't change anytime soon. Read up on Erdogan's approval ratings. He's doing much better than Trump.

Interesting times indeed!

The Canadian economy hangs by a thread...

That thread is of course more commonly known as the Keystone XL pipeline.

That's the sluice-way to getting Canada's dirty bitumen to the world. It's crucial to Canada because Canadians are smart enough to block bitumen exports at every turn. That's why exporting dirty oil through Canadian pipelines will never happen.

Which is why we're counting on stupid Americans to make it happen with Keystone.

The Canadian dollar has plunged in value from over par to around .76 in the past couple of years. Overall, I'd say that's a bit of an overreaction.  At the same time, we have Big Steve making his pronouncements about the collapsing Russian economy. When you look at the forex charts, the collapse of the Canadian dollar pretty much shadows the collapse of the ruble.

The big news today for the Canadian economy was that Barclay's issued negative reviews for the big Canadian banks. That sent shares of the big Canadian banks into the tank immediately.

What a howler that is! The only reason Barclays exists today is because it was deemed "too big to fail" seven years ago and got lots and lots of free money from the bail-out bonanza.

But now they're pontificating about the stability of Canadian banks, banks that sailed through the bail-out era in fine form without any bailout whatever!

Reminds me of the douche-bag "credit rating agencies" who kept rubber stamping all those sub-prime mortgage derivatives with AAA ratings, and then turned around and gave sovereign nations like Greece and Portugal junk status.

Why would anyone, I mean ANYONE, give a shit about what the wankers at Barclays have to say about anything?

But be that as it may, things are not looking good for the Harperites. Freedom and democracy are looking a little less free and democratic by the day.

The new "anti-terror" regs unveiled today look scary indeed. Looks like it's going to criminalize blogs like this one, if we persist in saying "Palestinians have a right to resist their occupation."

Or "Hezbollah has the right to defend southern Lebanon from Israeli attacks."

As I read it, the new "anti-terror" laws would allow the Harper gang to shut down this blog for making either of those claims.

Canadians have long prided themselves for their benign do-gooderism on the world stage.

Ya...

The deepest plunge into hell comes from the heights of naivete.

Bibi feints right, goes left

Oh, he's a sly one, that Netanyahu!

When the IDF took out that Hezbollah convoy in Syria on 18 January, we thought, "here we go!" It's Netanyahu with his predictable pre-election escalation. It's the time-tested Netanyahu strategy of shaping the landscape in such a way that he makes himself look like the indispensable "strong hand."

Even Israelis who loathe Netanyahu fall for that one again and again.

But the wily fox seems to be taking a different tack. After the 100% predictable Hezbollah retaliation of the past week, we expected Southern Lebanon to be consumed in fire and brimstone. Instead, we get some vaguely conciliatory verbiage about how back-channel messages from Nasrallah indicate that Hezbollah is not wanting an escalation...

What the hell is that all about? Has the Greatest Leader Since Moses gone soft?

So aside from the immediate bombardment of a few Lebanese border villages, there has been no retaliation for the Hezbollah attack, and for the moment at least, it appears that the PM is treating this as a balanced ledger.

Not only that, but today we learn that Israel is cooperating in an investigation into the death of that Spanish peace-keeper who died in that initial retaliation.

Bibi cooperating in an international investigation of Israel?

There you have it! Bibi the "strong hand" is yesterday's man...

He has remade himself as a man of peace, moderation, and reconciliation, just in time for the election!

With election less than two months away, Netanyau duly ramps up the provocations

It remains to be seen how Nasrallah will respond to yesterday's wholly unnecessary and manifestly illegal attack in Syria.

While serving no strategic purpose whatsoever, this cynical bit of electioneering allows Netanyahu to escalate tensions so that he can then pose as the "strong leader" just in time for the elections. Cynical beyond measure and dangerous beyond belief! What could go wrong?

Top National Post columnist exposed as delusional by pot-addled blogger

The National Post is the flagship title in the Postmedia stable, a Canadian newspaper franchise that has been enjoying a death spiral for years.

Postmedia was a Lazarus play conjured up by a few money guys who bought the outstanding debt of Izzy Asper's crashed Canwest media empire for pennies on the dollar a few years ago. They stuck Paul Godfrey in the captains chair for a million a year, crossed their fingers, and hoped for the best.

Over these last few years Postmedia has tried all sorts of desperation strategies trying to stay afloat; they've sold off the corporate real estate, fired virtually everyone who gets a real paycheque, farmed out all their editing and production, and still they're haemorrhaging more red ink than the last wagon-builder in the age of the motorcar.

While rumour has it that virtually all copy across the Postmedia chain is now produced by a handful of unpaid interns working out of a Tim Hortons in Burlington, it looks like a few of the old stalwarts are still given real office space and actual column inches to carry forward the illusion of continuity in the pages of the crumbling media empire.

Which must be why we still get to read Jonathan Kay in the pages of the Post.

Jonathan's reactionary far-right opinions are often entertaining, and his fellowship with the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies gives you a heads-up on what to expect, but the sad truth of the matter is that Kay is far more often than not simply full of shit.

Here's a Kay editorial from over two years ago celebrating the imminent demise of Bashir al Assad. Not only was Assad a gonner, but he was going to take Hezbollah with him, and all these marvels were occurring "without the West firing a shot."

And here is yours truly calling the bullshit at the time.

So where should you go to get the no-shit truth on world affairs, the National Post or this pot-addled blogger?

The miracle of the Iranian missile shipment

It's been a busy week for Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli PM has spent a few days in America, addressing the AIPAC loyalists, having meetings in Washington, and generally rallying all who will listen to the Likudnik vision first handed down by Moses all those millenia ago.

It's been a tough sell. Like it or not, BDS is gaining traction. Talks with the Palestinians may not be going anywhere, but the mere fact of talks is severely discomforting for Netanyahu. And then there are the Iranians.

You'd think that Netanyahu's turn at the UN last year, with that spiffy nuke schematic as a teaching aid, would have convinced the world once and for all of the message the PM has been shouting from the rooftops for well over twenty years now; that the Iranians are mere months from a bomb!

But instead of bombing the evil Iranian empire to ratshit, Obama opens a dialogue with them?!

Yes, these have been dark days indeed...

And then, just  as things are at their darkest, with a stroke of impeccable timing, the Almighty arranges to have the Israeli Navy stumble upon a shipment of Iranian missiles destined for Gaza!

WHAT A MIRACLE!

The world once again witnesses the perfidy of the Persians. Talking nice in Vienna about nukes while shipping Syrian missiles to the Palestinians to rain down on innocent Israeli civilians...  And the Palestinians are no less duplicitous, talking two state solution while secretly planning the elimination of the other state.

Were these missiles to fall into the hands of the Gaza rocketeers they could hit Tel Aviv!

It's a compelling story. Unfortunately it has more holes in it than the last Gaza farmer to wander too close to the fence.

Lets look at a map:



In the first place, that's one hell of a long trip to make just so Gaza militants can fire rockets at Tel Aviv. If the the goal of the Iranian terror-masterminds is to hit Tel Aviv with missiles, the missiles allegedly seized could do that from the Lebanese border. They could be delivered in an afternoon by truck instead of this months-long odyssey by sea.

Secondly, the Lebanese border is effectively controlled by Iranian ally Hezbollah, who already have plenty of missiles according to the highest levels of IDF intelligence. They could readily hit Tel Aviv anytime the mood seized them. No circuitous shipping extravaganza required. In fact, given the hundreds of thousands already in their possession, they wouldn't seem to have any urgent need for more, but this fact would undermine the story's "we have saved Tel Aviv from a terrorist missile attack" fear factor.

Finally, relations between Iran and Hamas have been less than cordial for the past couple of years. They are effectively fighting on opposite sides in the Syria conflict. The idea that Iran would be shipping weapons to its enemies is just foolishness.

So maybe it wasn't a miracle from up high after all, but just a well-timed PR stunt to discredit Iran.

There are any number of more plausible destinations for those rockets; anti-government rebels in Egypt or Saudi Arabia or rebel groups on the African side of the Red Sea just to name a couple of more obvious ones.

But it's a beautiful story, and the AIPAC faithful are gonna love it.

How Ariel Sharon created Hezbollah

If you believe what you read in the mainstream media, Hezbollah is now the second most dire existential threat to Israel, right after the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Thanks to intensive lobbying, bribery, and arm-twisting by successive Israeli governments, Hezbollah has been branded a "terror" group by most of the Nations of Virtue.

There was no such thing as Hezbollah before Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon. That fiasco, which dragged on for eighteen years at enormous cost to Israel, both in casualties and finances, was entirely a Sharon initiative.

Hezbollah emerged from a disparate collection of Shiite militias in southern Lebanon who congealed around one issue; undoing Sharon's invasion.

Israel is long gone from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah is stronger than ever.

That too is Ariel Sharon's legacy. 

Saudi Arabia and the $3B gift to Lebanon's Army; what could go wrong?

For one thing, the fact that the biggest banker and supplier of the jihadist factions in Syria is becoming the de facto banker of the Lebanese army implies a certain common interest between the State of Lebanon and the jihadists. Will that translate into direct military support of anti-Assad fighters? And when it does, will Assad's army feel free to take the battle to the Lebanese Army?

Secondly, any encroachment by the Lebanese army on Hezbollah's area of influence in southern Lebanon will be fiercely resisted. While Hezbollah is widely portrayed as an Iranian proxy in Western media, the reality is that the Shite population of Lebanon sees them as a legitimate defense force, and only those Lebanese completely blinded by wishful thinking believe that more hardware would allow the Lebanese army to rout Hezbollah military forces.

Thirdly, what impact will internecine violence in southern Lebanon have on the relative stability that has obtained on the Lebanon-Israel border since Hezbollah forced the end of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon? Even Lebanese who are not Hezbollah supporters understand that the Israeli withdrawal was a Hezbollah victory for all Lebanese, not just the Shia. 

Finally, while three billions may buy a lot of deadly hardware, the generosity of the Saudis can only have the effect of stimulating reciprocal generosity on the part of Iran and Russia, who have thus far shown no inclination to back away from their support of Assad. This Saudi gesture will inevitably lead to a massive escalation in the regional arms race. 

Given that the Syrian conflict is already leaking across Syria's borders on all sides, such an influx of weaponry will all but guarantee a regional conflagration that is bound to engulf not only Lebanon, but Turkey, Jordan, and Israel as well.

Will Israel use NATO attack on Syria as cover for new Lebanon war?

Every few years the government of Israel gives the IDF the green light to attack Lebanon, there to root out the Hezbollah "terrorists" once and for all.

The imminent NATO attack on Syria, widely expected to launch by the end of the week, may prove an irresistible window of opportunity for Netanyahu. The inevitable fog of war will help obscure who did what first, and the always-pliant western media giants will circle the wagons in defense of "the only democracy in the middle east."

But not to worry; Iron Dome batteries are now so ubiquitous that most Israelis will be well protected from at least the first ten minutes of retaliatory Hezbollah rocket barrages.

What could possibly go wrong?

Bullshit story of the day

In case you missed it here is a link to a BBC story about a Hezbollah arms cache found by Nigerian authorities.

Yup, Hezbollah is keeping weapons stores in the Land 'o Good'nuff Jonathan.

I guess the wily Shiites are keeping a few RPGs out of harms way, and four thousand miles away from the Lebanon-Israel border would seem safe enough.

At least they're out of range of the IAF F-16's that haunt Lebanon's skies on a daily basis.

You have to especially like the last sentence in the BBC report; the local Boko Haram terror outfit has been getting support from al-Qaeda-linked militants in other countries.

Like Hezbollah!

The only story here is that the Goodluck government is obviously so out of luck and utterly desperate for Western support that they are making up stories beyond ridiculous.

Crippled by budget restrictions and political meddling, IDF now reads blogs to maintain strategic advantage

Major General Eyal Eisenberg is stirring up controversy over in the Holy Land with his claim that Israelis are not adequately protected by Iron Dome.

He goes so far as to claim that the anti-missile defense system has created a false sense of security.

Everything he is saying today was said over a year ago in a blog post entitled The flawed arithmetic of Iron Dome.

His interview perpetuates that false sense of security by focusing only on missiles from Hezbollah. The political establishment has for years been pounding the war-drums for a confrontation with Iran, in which case the Shia militia will be only an afterthought, and the Iron Dome advantage will have been exhausted within the first five minutes of hostilities.

Here's an option the political boffins may want to consider; make peace instead.

60 Minutes airs Iron Dome infomercial

The CBS news show 60 Minutes led off tonight's program with what was essentially an infomercial for Raphael Industries' Iron Dome anti-missile missile system.

There is no doubt that Iron Dome is capable of some impressive stuff.

And although 60 Minutes didn't spell it out, there is also no doubt that the Iron Dome advantage will be fully spent within the first ten minutes of the next serious conflagration with Hezbollah.

Estimates of Hezbollah missile stockpiles range from 65,000 to ten times that. The Iron Dome batteries in place today might be capable of taking out some of the first barrage; a few hundred under the most optimistic scenario.

Then what?

When the ever-smug Ehud Barak gloats over how Iron Dome gives Israelis the peace of mind to go jogging on the beach, he is perpetuating a false sense of security.

Real security will only come with making peace with the enemies - all of them. That means talking to Hamas. That means talking to Hezbollah.

That means talking seriously with everybody in the neighborhood.

Iron Dome is a great gambit for fostering a false sense of security.

Peace is something else.

The Canadians behind the Bulgarian bus bombing

It's official.

Hezbollah terrorists were behind the Bulgarian bus bombing.

Not only that, but one or more of those Hezbollah terrorists were travelling on Canadian Passports.

Canada immigration minister Kenny is already busy at work trying to smear all dual Lebanon/Canada citizens with the terror brush.

The mainstream press is screaming for the EU to put Hezbollah on the official terrorist blacklist.

There's an important fact to keep in mind in the midst of all this hysteria about Hezbollah terrorists.

The ONLY foreign operatives ever decisively proven to be operating with Canadian passports have been Israelis.

But according to Foreign Minister John Baird and his personal rabbi, the Israelis are our very best friends in the entire world.

So obviously Hezbollah was behind this Bulgarian bus bombing.

Memo to only democracy in Middle East; you are no longer the only democracy in the Middle East

The Globe and Mail had an intriguing profile today about a Canadian professor working in China, who is arguing that democracy is not all it's cracked up to be.

Hello! That's been painfully obvious ever since Hitler was democratically elected in 1932.

But none of that has impinged on Israel's UK ambassador's eagerness to provide this op-ed to the Telegraph today.

Ambassador Taub trots out the usual shibboleths about terror here and terror there. Hamas is a terror group, don't you know. Not only that, but they've borrowed from the Hezbollah lexicon and, oh my God, even improved upon it!

As if such a thing is even thinkable...

The entire op-ed is designed to stoke fear in the diaspora Jewish community. It's a continuation of the age-old "we have no partner for peace" gambit.

People who are serious about peace make it a point to talk to their enemies. That guy who wants to wipe you from the map? That's the guy you need to talk to.

And the old "only democracy in the Middle East" tale is getting a bit stale too. Hamas, the people Taub can't talk to, because they don't like him, were democratically elected in 2006.

Whatever else they are, they are also the democratically elected government of what Charles Krauthammer has called a Palestinian state.

So Israel, once the only democracy in the Middle East, has lots of company now. Not only Hamas, but thanks to Arab Spring, their Muslim Brotherhood brothers on the other side of the Red Sea.

Labels like "terrorist" and "democracy" have by far outlived their shelf life.

Let's get serious about peace. Forget the name-calling and sit down face to face with both Hezbollah and Hamas.

Israel Defense Minister talks tough in London

Ehud Barak apparently didn't get the "shut up" memo that has seen other leading orators in Washington and Israel tone down the war talk recently with respect to Iran.

Speaking to the British Israel Communications and Research Center today, Barak was in full "all options on the table" mode, the kind of talk we haven't heard from Netanyahu or Obama in weeks.

Barak reminded his audience that Israel lives in a tough neighborhood where there is no mercy for the weak.

That is certainly a point that he and Hezbollah agree on!

With respect to the "civil war" in Syria, Barak claimed that the last thing Israel wants to see on her northern border is chaotic failed state, but witnesses claim he was crossing his fingers behind his back at the time.

Israeli warplanes send wake-up call to Hezbollah

That's what it's called when Israels US supplied fighter jets overfly southern Lebanon leaving a trail of sonic booms in their wake. The message is supposed to be  "keep screwing around with those drones and we'll be leaving more than sonic booms."

Hezbollah is wide awake and doesn't need a wake-up call. This news headline about Israeli warplanes is an artifice intended for the domestic audience and the diaspora.

The effect will actually be counter-productive.

The IAF just showed Hezbollah how they will respond to one of their drones. Fly low and loud over south Lebanon.

While they are busy with that, the Nations of Virtue are arguing among themselves about how soon and how many Stinger anti-aircraft missiles they can turn over to the "rebels" in Syria.

The rebels are already arguing among themselves about how many and how soon they should pass along some of those missiles to Hezbollah.

The next time there is a shooting war between Hezbollah and Israel, you can bet that low and loud will be met with the very weapons we are handing those "rebels" in Syria.