BlackBerry at ten bucks a share is a tremendous buy opportunity

The market made a wildly pessimistic over-reaction to the numbers that BlackBerry released earlier today, driving the share price down nearly 30%.

That's good. BBRY cred in the so-called developing world is excellent, much better than in the saturated "mature" markets, and the Q-5 roll-out in that world has scarcely begun.

The quarterly loss announced today is one tenth of the loss experienced in the same quarter a year ago, when the stock was still over $8.

At ten bucks BlackBerry will make you 50% before the next quarterlies are announced.

Pot-addled hillbilly blows Goldman Sachs out the door with 350% gain

And not just Goldman Sachs, but Bridgewater and Bain and all the rest of them.

I wrote this on September 28 last year;

No matter how you look at it RIM is a buy in the current price range.

The price at the time was a smurf-hair over six bucks. The price at closing today was a smurf-hair under fifteen.

That's about 110% in just over three and a half months.

Or about 350% annualized.

Sweet!

RIM loses millions in quarter but adds half a billion to cash hoard

Note that sentence about half way through the article; "cash on hand grew by $600 million to 2.9 billion."

Seems that those who have been declaring the Blackberry dead may have been a little premature.

Going forward of course everything depends on how the BB10 fares out in the coming months. A lackluster reception means the recent climb in the share price will stall out.

At the same time, even with a declining market share in mature markets, as long as Blackberry maintains a strong presence in emerging markets that cash hoard will continue to grow, especially with so many of the corporate cost-cutting measures just starting to kick in.

The stock is no longer the achingly obvious buy that it was in September, but it could easily top $20 even before we see what the marketplace thinks of BB10.

RIM surges on news that it's lost another major government contract

The US National Transportation Safety Board today announced that they were walking away from the venerable Black Berry in favor of the iPhone 5.

RIM's share price responded by gaining over 5% on the day.

Imagine where the stock could go if they ever get some good news!

Buy RIM

They closed today at around seven and a half.

I can see market hysteria driving that down even more. Three? Two fifty?

In any case this is a serious company with serious stuff going on and with serious cash reserves.

Where they have seriously lost out is in the 13 year old female market in North America.

That's a lot of hardware.

Apple owns the teenage market in North America.

RIM owns the US Army and virtually the whole spectrum of high-security markets in the entire world.

That fad-driven US market does have a huge impact on quarterly reports.

But don't write off the Blackberry folks just yet.

This blogger will make you rich

What did I tell you on August 16 last year?

Short RIM big time were the exact words, if I'm not mistaken.

So if you'd followed my advice and put your money on a gaggle of put options last August 16, where would you be now?

Sitting pretty, that's where.

RIM was somewhere around $25 a share when I made that call, if I remember correctly.

They're under twelve bucks at close yesterday.

That gaggle of put options would have returned 20:1, 50:1, maybe even 100:1 depending on the particulars.

Just so you know.

The think tank here at Falling Downs may be a bunch of commie wankers, but hey, nobody has a better feel for the pulse of capitalism than commies.

And if you took our tip last August, find a way to say thanks.

You're welcome.