Hagel telegraphed the administration's intentions very effectively over the last 24 hours.
It was all about red lines and headlines.
America is moving into the Syria conflict; stepping out from behind the curtain.
The logic behind the latest rhetoric beggars belief.
Evil dictator has been slaughtering his own people for two years. But today he has picked up a new implement with which to slaughter his people.
We were OK with the slaughter until this new implement was implemented, at which point we determined that a red line had been crossed.
Showing posts with label Conflict in Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conflict in Syria. Show all posts
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Friday, March 22, 2013
Joining hands in peace... just in time for war
They say Obama's Air Force One was still on the taxi-way enroute to Jordan when Netanyahu picked up the phone and put a call through to Turkey's President Erdogan.
"Hey, so sorry about that Mavi Marmara business," the Israeli PM whispered into the ear of Erdogan, and that's all the Turk PM needed to hear.
"Ah, thank you so much, all is forgiven!"
The pouty Turks had been waiting three years for today's apology. And Middle-East watchers knew it had to come sooner or later.
So while the Oracle of Nairobi didn't accomplish anything in terms of Israel-Palestine peace, he has set the stage for the next phase in the Syrian war.
Look at a map. The Syrian capital is less than fifty miles from the Israeli border. That's about an hour's drive for a column of Merkavas.
And of course Turkey has the northern border.
NATO-member Turkey and NATO step-child Israel have been having that unfortunate internecine spat ever since that unfortunate Mavi Marmara incident.
Looks like Obama was able to patch things up.
All we need now is the "major provocation" that will breach the "red line."
"Hey, so sorry about that Mavi Marmara business," the Israeli PM whispered into the ear of Erdogan, and that's all the Turk PM needed to hear.
"Ah, thank you so much, all is forgiven!"
The pouty Turks had been waiting three years for today's apology. And Middle-East watchers knew it had to come sooner or later.
So while the Oracle of Nairobi didn't accomplish anything in terms of Israel-Palestine peace, he has set the stage for the next phase in the Syrian war.
Look at a map. The Syrian capital is less than fifty miles from the Israeli border. That's about an hour's drive for a column of Merkavas.
And of course Turkey has the northern border.
NATO-member Turkey and NATO step-child Israel have been having that unfortunate internecine spat ever since that unfortunate Mavi Marmara incident.
Looks like Obama was able to patch things up.
All we need now is the "major provocation" that will breach the "red line."
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Robert Fisk declares Assad the winner in Syria; claims the Nations of Virtue have stabbed Syrian opposition in the back
As always, Fisk is right.
But who didn't see that coming?
This blog was talking about "an elaborate climb-down" by the US and NATO over a year ago.
Proving once again that if you really want cogent top-drawer news and current events analyses, occasional money-making investment tips, and the latest scoop on my cats, there is no substitute for THE VIEW FROM FALLING DOWNS.
But who didn't see that coming?
This blog was talking about "an elaborate climb-down" by the US and NATO over a year ago.
Proving once again that if you really want cogent top-drawer news and current events analyses, occasional money-making investment tips, and the latest scoop on my cats, there is no substitute for THE VIEW FROM FALLING DOWNS.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
UN reveals startling new Syria death toll
After almost two years of having no idea what the death toll in the Syrian civil war might be, the UN has waded in with an estimate that seriously ups the ante.
Till now the most accessible estimates have been from the London based "Syrian Observatory for Human Rights," a one man show run by Rami Abdul Rahman, a guy who assembles the numbers while working in his wife's dress shop.
It's safe to say that most observers of the Observatory were somewhat skeptical of Mr. Rahman's statistics. For one thing, he is an avowed opponent of the Assad regime and therefore had ample motive for inflating his figures.
Secondly, because the nature of his in-country network could not be independently verified, it was assumed in many quarters that it amounted to little more than wishful thinking. The consensus was, until yesterday, that the death toll publicized by the Observatory was to a greater or lesser extent exaggerated.
So here comes the UN, and bumps Abdul Rahman's numbers by a healthy 30%!
What is the UN up to? Does this signal a more activist role for the UN? Note that this information comes directly from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay. Would her office be foregrounding this issue if there wasn't pressure from certain security council members to raise the profile of the Syrian conflict as a prelude to more explicit involvement?
Look for anti-Assad resolutions coming from the UN soon.
Till now the most accessible estimates have been from the London based "Syrian Observatory for Human Rights," a one man show run by Rami Abdul Rahman, a guy who assembles the numbers while working in his wife's dress shop.
It's safe to say that most observers of the Observatory were somewhat skeptical of Mr. Rahman's statistics. For one thing, he is an avowed opponent of the Assad regime and therefore had ample motive for inflating his figures.
Secondly, because the nature of his in-country network could not be independently verified, it was assumed in many quarters that it amounted to little more than wishful thinking. The consensus was, until yesterday, that the death toll publicized by the Observatory was to a greater or lesser extent exaggerated.
So here comes the UN, and bumps Abdul Rahman's numbers by a healthy 30%!
What is the UN up to? Does this signal a more activist role for the UN? Note that this information comes directly from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay. Would her office be foregrounding this issue if there wasn't pressure from certain security council members to raise the profile of the Syrian conflict as a prelude to more explicit involvement?
Look for anti-Assad resolutions coming from the UN soon.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Will Riad Saif be Washington's man in Syria?
The name keeps popping up around the Doha meetings currently being held to rebrand the Syrian opposition.
He certainly has a CV that would appeal to Washington. A secular businessman with real credibility in Syria. His experience as an opposition parliamentarian going back almost twenty years bodes well. He's not just some ex-pat CIA asset who has been biding his time in London or Virginia.
In an interview he gave between prison stints almost six years ago he was eerily prescient about Arab Spring and the turmoil now engulfing his country. He was also adamant about keeping foreigners out of internal Syrian affairs.
This would be his undoing if he turns out to be the newly minted leader of a unified opposition. While he has credibility at home and abroad, he won't have it with the Islamist radicals doing most of the heavy lifting in the rebellion.
This could lead to the next phase of this war; open warfare not against Assad but between the al Qaeda linked rebel groups and those that have the blessings and the stinger missiles of the US.
He certainly has a CV that would appeal to Washington. A secular businessman with real credibility in Syria. His experience as an opposition parliamentarian going back almost twenty years bodes well. He's not just some ex-pat CIA asset who has been biding his time in London or Virginia.
In an interview he gave between prison stints almost six years ago he was eerily prescient about Arab Spring and the turmoil now engulfing his country. He was also adamant about keeping foreigners out of internal Syrian affairs.
This would be his undoing if he turns out to be the newly minted leader of a unified opposition. While he has credibility at home and abroad, he won't have it with the Islamist radicals doing most of the heavy lifting in the rebellion.
This could lead to the next phase of this war; open warfare not against Assad but between the al Qaeda linked rebel groups and those that have the blessings and the stinger missiles of the US.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Assad home free as rebels turn on rebels
Things aren't going that great in the great Syrian uprising.
Fanning the embers of nascent resentment of the Assad regime, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with the connivance of Erdogan and the blessing of the Pentagon, flooded the country with weapons and foreign jihadists.
If you remember the script from a year and a half ago, Assad's time was to be measured in days, maybe weeks...
Yet here we are.
Luckily for the people of Syria, the ultimate masterminds of this revolution are stepping out of the shadows and will proclaim their true intentions at the Doha meetings this week.
Hillary has already spilled the beans. Can't be having all those Islamist radicals running roughshod over our paid mercenary revolutionaries in Syria.
Enough is enough.
Fanning the embers of nascent resentment of the Assad regime, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with the connivance of Erdogan and the blessing of the Pentagon, flooded the country with weapons and foreign jihadists.
If you remember the script from a year and a half ago, Assad's time was to be measured in days, maybe weeks...
Yet here we are.
Luckily for the people of Syria, the ultimate masterminds of this revolution are stepping out of the shadows and will proclaim their true intentions at the Doha meetings this week.
Hillary has already spilled the beans. Can't be having all those Islamist radicals running roughshod over our paid mercenary revolutionaries in Syria.
Enough is enough.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
The Syria file from the Likud perspective
The common wisdom has it that it would be by far preferable to have a stable autocracy controlling the levers of power in Syria rather than some willy-nilly conglomeration of raggedy-ass rebels, protesters, and misfits.
Not even to mention the Jihadists who have taken over the Syria rebellion.
Here's the countervailing point of view.
The Somalia model.
Maybe Israel can get along quite nicely with a state of perpetual anarchy next door. After all, it wouldn't be much different than having a Gaza on the northern border.
Let the Muslims annihilate one another in never-ending internecine power struggles.
Feed them lots of small arms but make sure they never get any serious weaponry. If that means that Israel herself will provide AK-47s and RPGs to all factions in Syria, so be it.
After all, it's for the greater good.
Not even to mention the Jihadists who have taken over the Syria rebellion.
Here's the countervailing point of view.
The Somalia model.
Maybe Israel can get along quite nicely with a state of perpetual anarchy next door. After all, it wouldn't be much different than having a Gaza on the northern border.
Let the Muslims annihilate one another in never-ending internecine power struggles.
Feed them lots of small arms but make sure they never get any serious weaponry. If that means that Israel herself will provide AK-47s and RPGs to all factions in Syria, so be it.
After all, it's for the greater good.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
There's a surprise brewing in Syria
Everybody knows the broad outlines of the story. Arab Spring swept into Syria a year and a half ago and the Syrian masses rose up against the evil dictator etc.
Most people by now know the subtext too. The "spontaneous uprising" in Syria has been orchestrated by US vassal states Saudi Arabia and Qatar from the beginning. It's the "road to Damascus leads to Tehran" scenario much ballyhooed from this blog and many others.
Behind the masses yearning for freedom lies the realpolitik of US-Russia power struggles and the simmering Shia-Sunni war of attrition for dominance of the Islamist agenda.
So this story has a discombobulation factor that's off the scale. The headline and most of the text are what we expect. Iranian warships through the Suez on their way to Syria causes alarm in Israel!
That on the face of it is a scary story. What could those dodgy Persians be up to? And lets not forget that once they've cleared the Suez and are sailing past the Israeli coast, ISRAEL WILL BE SURROUNDED BY THE IRANIAN WAR MACHINE OH MY GOD!!!
But wait a minute, what's this? Three paragraphs from the bottom, we learn that the two-ship Iranian flotilla has put into Jedda for a couple of days r & r.
Jedda? That's in Saudi Arabia! That's where Bandar Bush, the CIA's favorite Arab, has just been promoted to Chief of Chiefs of secret service intel stuff of all sorts. He's the top spook, and probably the most powerful man in the land of Saud!
And this is where our arch-enemies the Iranians stop off for a few days on their way to Syria?
Something's not adding up here...
Most people by now know the subtext too. The "spontaneous uprising" in Syria has been orchestrated by US vassal states Saudi Arabia and Qatar from the beginning. It's the "road to Damascus leads to Tehran" scenario much ballyhooed from this blog and many others.
Behind the masses yearning for freedom lies the realpolitik of US-Russia power struggles and the simmering Shia-Sunni war of attrition for dominance of the Islamist agenda.
So this story has a discombobulation factor that's off the scale. The headline and most of the text are what we expect. Iranian warships through the Suez on their way to Syria causes alarm in Israel!
That on the face of it is a scary story. What could those dodgy Persians be up to? And lets not forget that once they've cleared the Suez and are sailing past the Israeli coast, ISRAEL WILL BE SURROUNDED BY THE IRANIAN WAR MACHINE OH MY GOD!!!
But wait a minute, what's this? Three paragraphs from the bottom, we learn that the two-ship Iranian flotilla has put into Jedda for a couple of days r & r.
Jedda? That's in Saudi Arabia! That's where Bandar Bush, the CIA's favorite Arab, has just been promoted to Chief of Chiefs of secret service intel stuff of all sorts. He's the top spook, and probably the most powerful man in the land of Saud!
And this is where our arch-enemies the Iranians stop off for a few days on their way to Syria?
Something's not adding up here...
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Free Syrian Army frees cargo from dozens of trucks stranded at border
These must be the Libyan freedom fighters who migrated to the Syrian revolution.
Multiple news sites are carrying variations of this story.
Seems when the rebels overran a couple of border posts this week it left dozens of transport trucks stranded.
The liberators lost no time liberating the freight, leaving a lot of drivers and businessmen wondering who is going to make good on their losses.
The think tank here at Falling Downs has given this serious consideration. It is our seriously considered view that the losses should be covered by the same entities that are funding the rebels.
The Saudis and the Qataris can well afford it.
Multiple news sites are carrying variations of this story.
Seems when the rebels overran a couple of border posts this week it left dozens of transport trucks stranded.
The liberators lost no time liberating the freight, leaving a lot of drivers and businessmen wondering who is going to make good on their losses.
The think tank here at Falling Downs has given this serious consideration. It is our seriously considered view that the losses should be covered by the same entities that are funding the rebels.
The Saudis and the Qataris can well afford it.
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