Showing posts with label Worldometers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Worldometers. Show all posts

Thursday, September 2, 2021

The "fourth wave" hustle

Not that you'll read about it in The Globe and Mail or on CBC, but there's been a stunning collapse in covid mortality over the course of the pandemic.

1st wave case counts peaked at 1,700 per day in late April 2020 (all stats based on 7-day moving avg.) Deaths peaked about a week later at 176.  10.4 deaths per 100 cases.

2nd wave cases peaked in January 2021 at 8,000 per day. Deaths peaked about a week later at 160. 2 deaths per 100 cases.

3rd wave case numbers crested at 8,800 last April. The daily death count peaked about a week later at 50. .6 deaths per 100 cases.

4th wave cases numbers have been climbing since the third week of July, from under 400 per day to the current 3,400, an 800% increase. Daily deaths are currently at 15, a statistically insignificant increase of 5 deaths per day since the case numbers began to climb. Currently we stand at  .4 deaths per 100 cases.

These are numbers, not conspiracy theories. Given the inconsistency in testing, I suspect the 1st wave mortality to cases ratio was inflated due to relatively less testing than during subsequent waves, and also because by waves 2 and 3 the most vulnerable were already gone. The drop in mortality from the second to the third suggests vaccines have had a positive impact. 

I humbly submit that the current hysteria over vaccinating children and ostracising the vaccine-hesitant is based on something other than the dangers posed by the actual pandemic. 

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I used the graphs at Worldometers because they are clear, simple, and it's easy to toggle between cases and deaths. They use the same gov't stats as the World Health Organization (WHO).