Not that you'll read about it in The Globe and Mail or on CBC, but there's been a stunning collapse in covid mortality over the course of the pandemic.
1st wave case counts peaked at 1,700 per day in late April 2020 (all stats based on 7-day moving avg.) Deaths peaked about a week later at 176. 10.4 deaths per 100 cases.
2nd wave cases peaked in January 2021 at 8,000 per day. Deaths peaked about a week later at 160. 2 deaths per 100 cases.
3rd wave case numbers crested at 8,800 last April. The daily death count peaked about a week later at 50. .6 deaths per 100 cases.
4th wave cases numbers have been climbing since the third week of July, from under 400 per day to the current 3,400, an 800% increase. Daily deaths are currently at 15, a statistically insignificant increase of 5 deaths per day since the case numbers began to climb. Currently we stand at .4 deaths per 100 cases.
These are numbers, not conspiracy theories. Given the inconsistency in testing, I suspect the 1st wave mortality to cases ratio was inflated due to relatively less testing than during subsequent waves, and also because by waves 2 and 3 the most vulnerable were already gone. The drop in mortality from the second to the third suggests vaccines have had a positive impact.
I humbly submit that the current hysteria over vaccinating children and ostracising the vaccine-hesitant is based on something other than the dangers posed by the actual pandemic.
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I used the graphs at Worldometers because they are clear, simple, and it's easy to toggle between cases and deaths. They use the same gov't stats as the World Health Organization (WHO).
You have not learned yet that facts will get you nowhere ??
ReplyDeleteCompared to the unvaccinated, those with two jabs of vaccine are less likely to catch Covid-19, less likely to be hospitalized if they do catch it, and less likely to die from the disease. The relatively low death counts during the third wave were a relief, and a demonstration of the efficacy of the vaccines.
ReplyDeleteThe much higher transmissibility of the delta variant is the problem of the moment, not the crisis talk of the public health community. I hope the dire warnings of the experts prove to be exaggerated. Yet here in Alberta the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital is growing very quickly (from a low point of 82 on July 27 to 487 on September 2) and deaths are ticking up (28 over the past seven days). I know -- it could be worse. But it could be a lot better if a higher percentage of the population was vaccinated. Every extra person vaccinated reduces the likelihood of a vulnerable person getting infected. We don't let measles or polio run rampant through schools and health care settings. Covid-19 should be no different.
So I'm all for vaccination requirements for essential categories of workers, starting with blog writers, retired teachers and hobby farmers.
For your information, the pot-addled blogger is fully jabbed up, and has the paperwork to prove it.
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