Just a few days ago I was waxing wise on how Obama is going to stall any action on Syria till after the election. Syria, as anyone who seriously follows these matters well knows, is the segue into the long anticipated war with Iran.
Events may be overtaking Obama. Suddenly the provenance of his birth certificate and the hoo-ha over Mitt's tax returns seem to be fading into the background.
A couple of days ago there was a story floating around about Assad's chemical warfare capabilities. The usual (highly suspect) sources had info that Assad's troops were accessing stockpiles of nerve gas. Echoes of Saddam's WMD all over that one. The story failed to gain serious traction at the time.
Yesterday Major General Aviv Kochavi, Israel's military intel boss, made some public statements to the effect that if Assad falls, the northern border is in play. Kochavi does not harbor any illusions about the nature of the Syrian uprising. These are not secular democracy-loving liberals calling the shots in the revolution, no matter what the Syrian expats in London and Washington want us to believe.
Today a busload of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria were targeted by a terrorist bomb. It took Netanyahu about fifteen seconds to announce that Iran was behind it. Suddenly the faltering coalition and the protests in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are relegated to the back burner.
Also today, a bodyguard with access to the highest levels of the Assad regime took out a good slice of Assad's senior leadership with a suicide bomb, that time-honored tactic of secular oppositions everywhere.
Connect the dots. It's not hard to see where things are going.
And I no longer believe matters will wait till November.
Showing posts with label Aviv Kochavi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aviv Kochavi. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
The flawed arithmetic of Iron Dome
Much has been made of the Iron Dome system's success in shooting down missiles being fired into Israel from Gaza. "Success rate of 90%" became conventional wisdom on the basis of a couple of dozen successful intercepts of home-made rockets.
In February 2012 Major General Aviv Kochavi, head of military intelligence, stood at the front of a packed auditorium at the Herzliya Conference and announced that at any given moment at least 200,000 missiles were pointed at Israel.
News reports of the time sourced at least 150,000 of those missiles in Iran. The rest can safely be assumed to be in Southern Lebanon or in Gaza itself, in the hands of more sophisticated people than the rogue elements who routinely fire their home-made Qassams at every opportunity.
The supposed 90% success rate has given the Likud gang justification to declare full speed ahead in ordering more Iron Dome batteries, so that every corner of sovereign Israel might be protected. Ten to fifteen additional batteries should do it, they claim.
As usual, the Likud enablers in the US Congress wasted no time in climbing aboard this initiative. Last week Congress introduced the Iron Dome Support Act, intended to financially support the spread of Iron Dome systems across the Holy Land.
This is obviously good news for Rafael, the Israeli military-industrial success story that is profiting mightily from Dome-mania. But in what sense is it good news for the people of Israel?
It isn't, and here's why.
A single Iron Dome battery costs in the range of 50 million US dollars, before missiles and installation. The ten to fifteen batteries deemed sufficient will run into the billions once they are fully operational. The US Congress will soon face domestic headwinds if they think they can get away with bankrolling that. Sooner or later the Israeli taxpayer will be on the hook.
On the other side, a Qassam costs less than a thousand US$ to build. They can build them in perpetuity. A rocket costs less than a washing machine. Every time Iron Dome is engaged it takes at least two missiles at US 50,000 each and a billion dollar infrastructure to bring it down.
And quite aside from the absurd cost of defending Israel from home made rockets, Iron Dome isn't even intended to protect against the 200,000 much more sophisticated missiles Major General Kochavi was talking about in February, the missiles that will be unleashed in the event of a "real" war.
That's the enigma of Iron Dome; false promises, a false sense of security, massive profits for Rafael.
In February 2012 Major General Aviv Kochavi, head of military intelligence, stood at the front of a packed auditorium at the Herzliya Conference and announced that at any given moment at least 200,000 missiles were pointed at Israel.
News reports of the time sourced at least 150,000 of those missiles in Iran. The rest can safely be assumed to be in Southern Lebanon or in Gaza itself, in the hands of more sophisticated people than the rogue elements who routinely fire their home-made Qassams at every opportunity.
The supposed 90% success rate has given the Likud gang justification to declare full speed ahead in ordering more Iron Dome batteries, so that every corner of sovereign Israel might be protected. Ten to fifteen additional batteries should do it, they claim.
As usual, the Likud enablers in the US Congress wasted no time in climbing aboard this initiative. Last week Congress introduced the Iron Dome Support Act, intended to financially support the spread of Iron Dome systems across the Holy Land.
This is obviously good news for Rafael, the Israeli military-industrial success story that is profiting mightily from Dome-mania. But in what sense is it good news for the people of Israel?
It isn't, and here's why.
A single Iron Dome battery costs in the range of 50 million US dollars, before missiles and installation. The ten to fifteen batteries deemed sufficient will run into the billions once they are fully operational. The US Congress will soon face domestic headwinds if they think they can get away with bankrolling that. Sooner or later the Israeli taxpayer will be on the hook.
On the other side, a Qassam costs less than a thousand US$ to build. They can build them in perpetuity. A rocket costs less than a washing machine. Every time Iron Dome is engaged it takes at least two missiles at US 50,000 each and a billion dollar infrastructure to bring it down.
And quite aside from the absurd cost of defending Israel from home made rockets, Iron Dome isn't even intended to protect against the 200,000 much more sophisticated missiles Major General Kochavi was talking about in February, the missiles that will be unleashed in the event of a "real" war.
That's the enigma of Iron Dome; false promises, a false sense of security, massive profits for Rafael.
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