The flawed arithmetic of Iron Dome

Much has been made of the Iron Dome system's success in shooting down missiles being fired into Israel from Gaza. "Success rate of 90%" became conventional wisdom on the basis of a couple of dozen successful  intercepts of home-made rockets.

In February 2012 Major General Aviv Kochavi, head of military intelligence, stood at the front of a packed auditorium at the Herzliya Conference and announced that at any given moment at least 200,000 missiles were pointed at Israel.

News reports of the time sourced at least 150,000 of those missiles in Iran. The rest can safely be assumed to be in Southern Lebanon or in Gaza itself, in the hands of more sophisticated people than the rogue elements who routinely fire their home-made Qassams at every opportunity.

The supposed 90% success rate has given the Likud gang justification to declare full speed ahead in ordering more Iron Dome batteries, so that every corner of sovereign Israel might be protected. Ten to fifteen additional batteries should do it, they claim.

As usual, the Likud enablers in the US Congress wasted no time in climbing aboard this initiative. Last week Congress introduced the Iron Dome Support Act, intended to financially support the spread of Iron Dome systems across the Holy Land.

This is obviously good news for Rafael, the Israeli military-industrial success story that is profiting mightily from Dome-mania. But in what sense is it good news for the people of Israel?

It isn't, and here's why.

A single Iron Dome battery costs in the range of 50 million US dollars, before missiles and installation. The ten to fifteen batteries deemed sufficient will run into the billions once they are fully operational. The US Congress will soon face domestic headwinds if they think they can get away with bankrolling that. Sooner or later the Israeli taxpayer will be on the hook.

On the other side, a Qassam costs less than a thousand US$ to build. They can build them in perpetuity. A rocket costs less than a washing machine. Every time Iron Dome is engaged it takes at least two missiles at US 50,000 each and a billion dollar infrastructure to bring it down.

And quite aside from the absurd cost of defending Israel from home made rockets, Iron Dome isn't even intended to protect against the 200,000 much more sophisticated missiles Major General Kochavi was talking about in February, the missiles that will be unleashed in the event of a "real" war.

That's the enigma of Iron Dome; false promises, a false sense of security, massive profits for Rafael.