Israel: 7 days from euphoria to humiliation

I’ve been a keen follower of the adventures of the Israeli Defense Forces since the Six Day War. I have never seen Israel jump at a ceasefire proposal with the unseemly haste demonstrated this past week. Something doesn’t add up. Just days ago Israel and its main water-boy Uncle Sam were bragging up their “total control” of Iranian airspace. The prevailing view in our pro-Israel commentariat (i.e. all mainstream media) was that, while we naturally abhor unprovoked wars of aggression, in this case the Israelis are doing the world a favour! It must be plainly obvious by now, that after 20 months, the war on Gaza is a failure. That’s about 18 months longer than all other wars in the history of Israel combined. It’s also obvious that “total control of the skies” was mostly imaginary. The Iron Dome fraud has been irrevocably exposed as… well, a fraud. When the enemies of Israel can deliver ballistic missiles, seemingly at will, to every city in the land, it’s time to stop bragging about your superiority and start looking for a “Plan B.”

Why US will not attack Iran

Short answer; it wouldn't be in Israel's interests.

Forty years of inflammatory political rhetoric aside, the serious people at the top of the IDF understand that any significant action against Iran is going to draw in Hezbollah. Here's Security Minister Gilad Erdan putting Hezbollah's missile count at 150,000 last year.

That's simply too many missiles to take out in a preemptive attack, and it's a number that would completely overwhelm Iron Dome defensive capabilities. Every major population centre in Israel would be vulnerable.

Ergo, an attack on Iran is a no-go.

Why Israel will avoid a direct show-down with Hezbollah

Much has been made of the alleged "increased tensions" in the Middle East, due in no small part to both Israeli and US meddling in Syria. The more paranoid factions of the punditocracy see an Israeli or combined Israel-US assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon as imminent, especially in light of Mr. Netanyahu's dire straits vis-a-vis those various corruption investigations.

It won't happen, and here's why. That number is from two years ago. Unofficial estimates have the Hezbollah arsenal at well over 200,000 rockets today, and we're not talking about the homemade stuff the Gaza rocketeers lob into the Negev on a regular basis. We're talking about the real deal.

If you assume a best case scenario wherein the various Israeli anti-missile defences, Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow program, all function flawlessly, they could be expected to be effective against an initial barrage of a few hundred incoming. They'd be less effective going forward, and they'd essentially be a non-factor after a few thousand, which in the case of all-out war would be a matter of hours.

Then what? Even if the IAF managed to take out half the Hezbollah arsenal in a massive first strike, that'll leave a hundred thousand missiles and Israel with it's missile shield spent. Political rhetoric aside, IDF leadership will never permit this.

What we're looking at is a regional case of MAD lite. There may be proxy battles here and there, but there will not be a head-on confrontation.

Will Israel use NATO attack on Syria as cover for new Lebanon war?

Every few years the government of Israel gives the IDF the green light to attack Lebanon, there to root out the Hezbollah "terrorists" once and for all.

The imminent NATO attack on Syria, widely expected to launch by the end of the week, may prove an irresistible window of opportunity for Netanyahu. The inevitable fog of war will help obscure who did what first, and the always-pliant western media giants will circle the wagons in defense of "the only democracy in the middle east."

But not to worry; Iron Dome batteries are now so ubiquitous that most Israelis will be well protected from at least the first ten minutes of retaliatory Hezbollah rocket barrages.

What could possibly go wrong?

US taxpayers to fork over another $400 million for Israel's imaginary missile defence system

There's nothing wrong with Iron Dome.

It works.

So the news that America is slipping her bestie in the ME another 400 mil for more Iron Dome batteries  isn't that big a deal.

After all, our besties are the only sort-of democracy in the Middle East.

And if you're not prepared to squander hundreds of millions on that sort-of fact, what the hell else would you squander that money on?

Education?

Health care?

Infrastructure?

Let's get serious...

But I digress. Back to Iron Dome.

Iron Dome does indeed work. The five operational batteries en situ today will have an 80-90% success rate in knocking incoming missiles out of the sky... for about the first five minutes of a serious conflagration with, oh, just for the sake of debate, Iran.

Then Iron Dome will have exhausted it's supply of ready-to-fire anti-missile missiles.

The $400 millions promised by the Americans today will extend that five minute protection umbrella by a couple of minutes at the most.

Is there a serious person anywhere who thinks there will not be more missiles incoming after seven or eight minutes? Or hours? Or days?

That's why Iron Dome is and always has been bullshit. It provides a false sense of security and enriches certain military contractors.

In the long run the only security is making peace with the neighbors.

If only the Americans were willing to subsidize that.

IDF needs a few good men who didn't fail high school math

While I felt both flattered and vindicated by Major General Eyal Eisenberg's comments about the false sense of security engendered by Iron Dome, I was at the same time taken aback by the claim, five paragraphs from the bottom, that Hezbollah's arsenal consists of approximately 5,000 warheads.

Where the hell does he pull that number from, and how the hell does the media let it pass?

That's fewer rockets than Hezbollah used in the last Lebanon war.

Have Hezbollah been decommissioning their inventory and forgot to put out a press release?

Not likely.

Should a reasonable observer assume that they have more, not fewer missiles today?

I would think so.

Estimates of Hezbollah missile inventory typically range from 30,000 into the hundreds of thousands, depending on the motivations of the person doing the talking.

Eisenberg's estimate of 5,000 is by far the lowest I have seen in years.

Of course, if one tires of the hand-wringing over missile counts, there is another option; making peace with the neighbors.

Failing that, the best and the brightest will keep moving to Berlin.

Crippled by budget restrictions and political meddling, IDF now reads blogs to maintain strategic advantage

Major General Eyal Eisenberg is stirring up controversy over in the Holy Land with his claim that Israelis are not adequately protected by Iron Dome.

He goes so far as to claim that the anti-missile defense system has created a false sense of security.

Everything he is saying today was said over a year ago in a blog post entitled The flawed arithmetic of Iron Dome.

His interview perpetuates that false sense of security by focusing only on missiles from Hezbollah. The political establishment has for years been pounding the war-drums for a confrontation with Iran, in which case the Shia militia will be only an afterthought, and the Iron Dome advantage will have been exhausted within the first five minutes of hostilities.

Here's an option the political boffins may want to consider; make peace instead.

60 Minutes airs Iron Dome infomercial

The CBS news show 60 Minutes led off tonight's program with what was essentially an infomercial for Raphael Industries' Iron Dome anti-missile missile system.

There is no doubt that Iron Dome is capable of some impressive stuff.

And although 60 Minutes didn't spell it out, there is also no doubt that the Iron Dome advantage will be fully spent within the first ten minutes of the next serious conflagration with Hezbollah.

Estimates of Hezbollah missile stockpiles range from 65,000 to ten times that. The Iron Dome batteries in place today might be capable of taking out some of the first barrage; a few hundred under the most optimistic scenario.

Then what?

When the ever-smug Ehud Barak gloats over how Iron Dome gives Israelis the peace of mind to go jogging on the beach, he is perpetuating a false sense of security.

Real security will only come with making peace with the enemies - all of them. That means talking to Hamas. That means talking to Hezbollah.

That means talking seriously with everybody in the neighborhood.

Iron Dome is a great gambit for fostering a false sense of security.

Peace is something else.

Iron Dome proves it doesn't work

Rafael will of course use the exact same statistics to argue that it does.

The last numbers I've seen is that the highly touted Rafael anti-missile defense system has shot down 130 incoming missiles, while 450 have landed.

With a handful of possible exceptions, everything incoming has been homemade handiwork of the Gaza bricoleurs. In a serious war those would not even be considered serious weapons, and Iron Dome is stopping less than one third?

This is all fun and games as long as the Americans are paying for it, but expect a serious push very soon for a massive increase in funding to Rafael. The argument will be that there just aren't enough anti-missile missiles.

Sooner or later Obama will tire of paying for them.

Then Israel will be forced to choose between bankrupting the budget for a defense strategy that doesn't work but enriches a certain segment of the population on the one hand, and making peace on the other.

The flawed arithmetic of Iron Dome

Much has been made of the Iron Dome system's success in shooting down missiles being fired into Israel from Gaza. "Success rate of 90%" became conventional wisdom on the basis of a couple of dozen successful  intercepts of home-made rockets.

In February 2012 Major General Aviv Kochavi, head of military intelligence, stood at the front of a packed auditorium at the Herzliya Conference and announced that at any given moment at least 200,000 missiles were pointed at Israel.

News reports of the time sourced at least 150,000 of those missiles in Iran. The rest can safely be assumed to be in Southern Lebanon or in Gaza itself, in the hands of more sophisticated people than the rogue elements who routinely fire their home-made Qassams at every opportunity.

The supposed 90% success rate has given the Likud gang justification to declare full speed ahead in ordering more Iron Dome batteries, so that every corner of sovereign Israel might be protected. Ten to fifteen additional batteries should do it, they claim.

As usual, the Likud enablers in the US Congress wasted no time in climbing aboard this initiative. Last week Congress introduced the Iron Dome Support Act, intended to financially support the spread of Iron Dome systems across the Holy Land.

This is obviously good news for Rafael, the Israeli military-industrial success story that is profiting mightily from Dome-mania. But in what sense is it good news for the people of Israel?

It isn't, and here's why.

A single Iron Dome battery costs in the range of 50 million US dollars, before missiles and installation. The ten to fifteen batteries deemed sufficient will run into the billions once they are fully operational. The US Congress will soon face domestic headwinds if they think they can get away with bankrolling that. Sooner or later the Israeli taxpayer will be on the hook.

On the other side, a Qassam costs less than a thousand US$ to build. They can build them in perpetuity. A rocket costs less than a washing machine. Every time Iron Dome is engaged it takes at least two missiles at US 50,000 each and a billion dollar infrastructure to bring it down.

And quite aside from the absurd cost of defending Israel from home made rockets, Iron Dome isn't even intended to protect against the 200,000 much more sophisticated missiles Major General Kochavi was talking about in February, the missiles that will be unleashed in the event of a "real" war.

That's the enigma of Iron Dome; false promises, a false sense of security, massive profits for Rafael.

Iron Dome and the illusion of security

According to media reports there have been 300 rockets launched into Israel in the past four days.

According to media reports 56 of them have been stopped by Iron Dome.

What's wrong with this picture?

It typically requires two anti-missile missiles to intercept one incoming. If 56 were shot down that would require 112 anti-missile missiles.

The cost of an anti-missile missile is a matter of conjecture. Estimates range from $100,000 to one million US. These missiles will eventually bankrupt Israel even it they never hit anything.

What used to happen with Gaza missiles before Iron Dome?

Mostly they fell into the Negev and blew up some sand.

But now hundreds of millions of dollars are to be spent to counter this threat. In fact, Netanyahu has promised dozens more Iron Dome batteries.

The Iron Dome system is a re-named American Patriot anti-missile system. Perhaps there have been improvements made since the American system proved a dismal failure in the first Gulf war.

Perhaps not.

What is known is that if a "real" war were to break out, the Iron Dome would be up against far more sophisticated stuff than what's flying out of Gaza these days.

If Iron Dome is scoring 56/300 against the Gaza Grads, what will it do when a real war breaks out?

Netanyahu willing to risk annihilation of Israel in desperate attempt to cling to power

How odd that Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu needs to come to Washington to find a standing ovation.

That's what he'll be getting when he addresses the AIPAC policy conflab in Washington this week. In fact, I expect that his speech will be punctuated with multiple standing ovations.

That's not something Bibi gets a lot of back in the Holy Land.

In fact, he's pretty much a lame-duck at home, engulfed in one scandal after another. His brand of crony leadership and petty corruption is getting more than a little stale with the voters.

But in Washington he'll get a hero's welcome. He will get standing O's when he compares the Iranians to the Nazis. He'll get a standing ovation for invoking the holocaust. He'll get a standing ovation for threatening to start a new war in the Middle east.

He'll get those standing ovations from American's who don't live there.

Meanwhile, recent reports estimate that somewhere between 200 and 600 thousand missiles are ready to be fired at Israel in the event of an attack on Iran. Those figures came from Israeli sources and are perhaps exaggerated a wee bit. Lets assume there's only fifty thousand...

Iron Dome will stop a few dozen.

Hezbollah hashish merchants suspected as dozens of Israeli missiles fall off truck

There were no injuries as dozens of unsecured missiles fell off an Israeli transport this week.

The accident happened after IDF troops loaded up the shipment, intended for an Iron Dome installation in the Negev, but then forgot to tie them down.

A senior IDF spokesperson claimed that he is not surprised. "That Bekaa Valley Blonde is everywhere. And these young conscripts, they are not good for shit. Half of them are religious fanatics and the other half are stoned all the time. Today we saw what can happen when the stoned ones load the trucks."

Officials with the Defense Ministry refused to comment, but sources say that it is well known that Hezbollah is behind the trafficking of Bekaa valley hashish into Israel.

IDF chief Maj. General Ido Nehoshtan has ordered a complete halt to all missile-loading activities until the completion of a full governmental inquiry.

While I don't mean to second guess the Major General, I do think this is a bit of an over-reaction. Something simple like having the driver check the load before he pulls out of the warehouse works well on the civilian side, regardless of how stoned the warehouse workers are.

Should work for the IDF too. No government inquiry needed.

Gaza rocket barrage scores direct hit on Israel

Luckily they hit the parts of Israel they usually hit. Open desert. Nobody hurt. Nothing damaged.

It's still a good news bad news story though.

The good news of course is that nobody was hurt and nothing was damaged.

The bad news is that the vaunted "Iron Dome" defense system only got one of the incoming barrage.

The Iron Dome has cost well over two hundred million US dollars to put in place. Then again we can find some good news; when we say US dollars we mean it's the US taxpayer who's paying for this crap.

One of the criticisms of Iron Dome is that it's too expensive. Costs on average over one hundred thousand dollars to fire an anti-missle missle. Those guys in Gaza are putting together a home-made Qassam for under a thousand bucks. When you're only hitting one in six, that's over half a million spent on shooting down one home-made rocket that was just going to fall in the desert anyway.

Thank God it's the American and not the Israeli taxpayer footing the bill for this. Otherwise Hamas would soon be rocketeering Israel into bankruptcy.

It does lead to some disturbing questions though. How is Iron Dome going to work in the next round with those Shiites across the northern border?

The stuff they'll be firing won't be home-made.