Five years later Hilliard Macbeth is still wrong

There's a widespread belief that Canada's seemingly out-of-control real estate bubble is about to burst.

Hilliard Macbeth has seen it coming for at least five years. If you'd had the misfortune of heeding Hilliard five years ago, you'd have bailed out of the market and rented a place. After the collapse, you would have got your dream home at a massive discount!

Alas, the collapse has yet to happen. If you're one of those pathetic souls who acted on Hilliard's prognostications, you're now permanently doomed to rental, because the half-million-dollar house you gave up five years ago in anticipation of the imminent collapse of the real estate bubble, will now cost you a million to buy back.

Has Hilliard apologised? No. In fact he's got a revised edition out. Seems his theory was golden, just his timing was off...

Boy, can I ever identify with that! My theories on everything from oil futures to shorting Apple have been spot-on, but, more often than not, my timing was off.

But, I've apologized for my shitty advice and am doing penance, shooting spitballs of umbrage at the establishment in my role as the pot-addled hillbilly at Falling Downs, whereas Hilliard remains employed by a legit financial concern.

It's my impression that while real estate valuations seem grotesquely distorted, they remain tied to the basic laws of supply and demand. If you track population inflow from all sources, and compare it to new construction, it's obvious that we have a serious disconnect.


There is absolutely nothing on the horizon to indicate that this disconnect will be repaired in the foreseeable future.