CBC informs us that Canada has offered to join Uncle Sam in threatening "massive consequences" against Russia, should they renew their aggression against Ukraine.
I’m sure Uncle Sam is delighted to have the back-up of one of NATO’s bench-warming non-entities, especially since the US has already stated categorically that it has no intention of intervening militarily should Putin decide to annex his neighbour.
No, instead, they’re promising “massive sanctions.”
Whoa!
Not massive sanctions!
That’s gotta have Bad Vlad pooping his pants in paroxysms of panic… Russia hasn’t been slapped down like that since Poroshenko struck Putin from his Christmas card mailing list in 2015!
So Canada is all-in for massive sanctions. Problem is, Russia-Canada trade was never anything of consequence to begin with, and what remains has been subject to progressively tightening sanctions since at least 2014.
In other words, Canada has zero leverage in the sanctions department, so our FM’s generous offer to Blinken was a complete nothing-burger.
On the other hand, there are some serious NATO members in Europe who could have some leverage against Russia using trade sanctions. Unfortunately, they are heavily reliant on Russian natural gas to power their electrical grids and keep their populations from freezing to death.
Looks to me like Putin’s in for a stern scolding should he annex Ukraine!
Which raises the question, why would he want to?
Ukraine, in Soviet times, was both the breadbasket and the industrial heartland of the Soviet Union. That ended thirty years ago. Over those thirty years Ukraine has become a failed state, mostly due to the corruption of its oligarch-infested political class. GDP/capita is now 3x higher in Russia than in what was once its most prosperous region. (As a point of reference, Canadian GDP/capita is 4x Russia’s.)
Aside from the eastern areas where Russian-speakers predominate, there are no Russian interests in Ukraine. Why would Putin want to “annex” a hostile failed state?
That said, our foolish talk about NATO membership for Ukraine has led to the current crisis. NATO infrastructure in Ukraine, Russia says, is a red line. That would include those NATO “training missions” Canada prides itself on “leading.”
Here’s a potentially life-saving tip for FM Joly and CAF brass. If we absolutely must train Ukrainian nationalist extremists, why not bring them here? After all, there's plenty of military bases out in Canada's Ukrainian provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, where our trainees would be welcome and Russian missiles won't reach.
Sounds like a win-win to me!
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