If Putin wasn't bluffing we might be screwed

I wrote a post back in January questioning the assumption Putin was bluffing when he issued the December ultimatum. The gist of the ultimatum was that if NATO doesn't back away from our borders, specifically in Ukraine, we will take military-technical measures to solve the problem. NATO/USA briefly ridiculed Putin's ultimatum and then ignored it altogether. Six months and a trillion dollars later, our state media outlets continue to assure us that a Ukrainian victory is just around the corner. The Toronto Star had two full pages of rabid Ukrainian propagana on view today. Ukraine is going to win... They've been winning since they beat back the assault on Kyiv in February. They've been pushing the Russians back ever since. Just a few more billions in long-range missiles and Russia's defeat is assured. Unfortunately, in spite of all that momentum, Ukraine continues to shrink. Is it perhaps time to consider Putin wasn't bluffing? Perhaps it's time to acknowledge that Putin has effectively called our bluff.