Is RIM toast?

The Scientific American seems to think so.

And today's gloomy news certainly seemed to bear that out.

And here's another factoid to hold at the back of your mind. There are 2.5 times as many RIM shares gone short today than a year ago, when the stock was trading in the neighborhood of $19. In other words, more than twice as many investors are betting against RIM at today's price than were betting against it when it was 19 bucks.

There's an obvious herd effect manifest in those numbers, and that herd effect is driven by exactly the kind of news stories linked above.

Here's what's real; much depends on BB10. If that flops out, you're looking at a stock that shouldn't be valued above its break-up value. That won't be determined until the last patent is auctioned off, but it's reasonable to say we're comfortably within that range at today's close.

Which is why it doesn't make a lot of sense to go short at this price.

The fact that less than 2% of new cellphones sold in the US in the last quarter were RIM phones is hardly news. It's a wonder they sold any, given the hype around the BB10 that's only two months away.

What happens after that will depend on the BB10.

In the meantime, two or five or even ten percent daily swings in the share price are going to be routine.

A day trader's dream!