US-Israel war games cancelled; what could this mean?

On the face of it, the cancellation (or at least the deferral) of the upcoming Austere Challenge war games scheduled for Israel in the coming months is a bit of a mystery.

One explanation popping up on American news sites is that the US doesn't want to further escalate tensions at this delicate time.

This seems dubious at best. The reason this is a delicate time is that we've been ratcheting up the antagonism any chance we get. We've created the "tensions" as a matter of policy. Why would we stop now?

Another explanation floating around is that budget considerations are responsible. Again, highly unlikely. From a big-picture perspective operation Austere Challenge isn't even a drop in the bucket.

The think tank here at Falling Downs has a better theory.

It's obvious to anyone who follows these matters that the more extreme right-wingers in both the American and Israeli political worlds are gung-ho for military action. Listen to the GOP presidential candidates try to outdo one another in making dire threats against Iran.

It is also well known that the senior professional ranks in the US military are against such an adventure. These are not people taken in by the revisionist twaddle being peddled by the mainstream media about our "achievements" in Iraq and Afghanistan.

These are people who know that Iraq and Afghanistan have been disasters, and that we are in no way shape or form ready for any military engagement with Iran that will not be an exponentially greater disaster.

While there are plenty of rational secular people in the IDF and in the Israeli security apparatus in general who share that view, there are sound reasons for the Americans to have doubts about their Israeli allies.

The IDF is year by year becoming a less secular and more religious institution. Not only is it becoming more religious, it is becoming more politicized.

Austere Challenge was cancelled because the US military at the highest levels does not want to risk having a significant troop presence in Israel. If Israel initiates a unilateral attack on Iran while thousands of American soldiers are in the country, the resulting Iranian counterattack would by definition draw us into war with Iran.

That's a chance the top brass, unlike the war cheer-leaders in the media and at the think tanks and in the GOP leadership race, aren't willing to take.