Most Syrian refugees are not coming from Syria

While they may be Syrians, they're coming from Turkey, not Syria. For the most part, they've been safely ensconced in Turkish refugee camps for years. This is a fact all but invisible in North American media, but freely bandied about in the Turkish press...

Even in these dark days when light-hearted banter is heavily discouraged in Turkish media.

The more interesting question is, why are they coming now? 

They're coming now because the Erdogan regime has been encouraging them to leave. The reasons why the Erdogan regime is doing that at this point in time are obvious enough. When Turkey was first rolling out the red carpet for those refugees four years ago, it was generally assumed that the al-Assad regime would not survive the carefully orchestrated onslaught of domestic "opposition" and foreign jihadis for more than a few months.

Four years later, the arithmetic of regime change has changed.

To the shock of everyone who predicted al-Assad's early demise, he remains in power.

After the Obama-Putin speeches at the UNGA yesterday, it is now obvious that the Nations of Virtue have embarked on a major climb-down.

Assad will be permitted to stay, at least for now.

And since Erdogan never signed up to host those refugees in perpetuity, he's sending them on to the Nations of Virtue in the EU.