Thursday, July 25, 2013

Where to with the Blackberry share price?

If I'm not mistaken the first time Blackberry/RIM was mentioned here was as an aside in a post about Peter Pocklington in August 2011.

At the time the share price was in the $25 range and the advice was an unambiguous "go short."

In May, June, and September 2012, I called it a buy. In September the stock was in the sub $7 range and I correctly called a massive upside.

In January of this year, when the share price was well over $15, I suggested that it might not be wise to hang around too long.. The BB 10 debut was going to be wildly unpredictable.

"As the share price approaches $20 it's got a lot of happy-ever-after built into it."

Another great call if I do say so myself!

So we've had the debut and the stock is down roughly 50% since January.

Now what?

At < $9  we are well below any reasonable assessment of break-up value, so taking a short position now doesn't seem like a sensible strategy.

BBRY can continue as is for a considerable time with current market share. It remains to be seen what the next quarterly results will be.

This is a stock with at least two safety nets under it; its break-up value and its potential as a takeover target.

At $9 it's a buy.

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